NCAA March Madness Sweet Sixteen Preview
- Marcus
- Mar 26
- 7 min read
After a thrilling opening weekend, the road to the Final Four has been trimmed down to just sixteen teams, all vying for a shot at the national championship. This year’s tournament has been relatively tame by March Madness standards, with all four No. 1 seeds still standing and few major upsets to shake things up. The stage is set for the Sweet 16, and it's time for a deep dive into each matchup to see who has the best shot at making a run to the Final Four.
(2) Alabama vs (6) BYU
Alabama’s identity is defined by its explosive offense, leading all Division I teams with 91.1 points per game. The Crimson Tide thrive on an up-tempo style, ranking No. 1 in adjusted pace and fourth in possession length. At the heart of their high-powered attack is Mark Sears, the senior guard who has been nothing short of sensational this season. Sears leads Alabama in scoring, showcasing his ability to take over games with his shooting, playmaking, and relentless drives to the rim. To keep up with this SEC powerhouse, BYU will need forward Richie Saunders to continue his breakout season. After averaging 9.6 points last year, Saunders has stepped up to 16 points per game, playing a key role in the Cougars' success. For BYU to have a shot at the upset, they’ll need elite perimeter shooting and a divine performance from Saunders—while also finding a way to slow down Sears, who can single-handedly change the game.
(1) Florida vs (4) Maryland
After edging out back-to-back champion UConn, the Florida Gators have solidified themselves as one of the most complete teams in this tournament. It took a late surge to overcome a game where UConn controlled the lead for most of the contest, but Florida’s balance on both ends proved crucial. The Gators rank No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, a combination that could be too much for Maryland to handle. The Terrapins bring offensive firepower of their own, led by standout big man Derik Queen—a projected first-round pick—and Julian Reese, the brother of WNBA star Angel Reese. However, Maryland’s lack of depth could be their downfall. They ranked No. 314 in bench minutes this season, relying heavily on their starting five. While the “Crab Five” have carried them this far, it’s tough to see them keeping pace with Florida. The Gators have arguably the best guard in the country in Walter Clayton Jr., and he’ll be the difference-maker in this matchup. Expect him to put on a show as Florida continues its push for a national title.
(1) Duke Vs (4) Arizona
After dismantling their first two opponents by 20+ points, Duke has made one thing clear—they mean business. Following last year’s disappointing Elite Eight exit to NC State, it’s championship or bust for Jon Scheyer’s squad. The Blue Devils boast one of the most talented rosters in the country, headlined by ACC Player of the Year Cooper Flagg and fellow projected NBA lottery pick Khaman Maluach. Complementing their star power is a veteran backcourt featuring Tyrese Proctor and Sion James, two guards who can score efficiently while locking down on defense. This balance of experience, talent, and youthful explosiveness makes Duke a nightmare matchup for Arizona. In typical Blue Devils fashion, expect them to come out firing, build an early double-digit lead, and control the game from start to finish. The Wildcats have talent, but keeping pace with Duke’s depth and firepower might be too tall of a task for these cats to claw out a win.
(3) Texas Tech Vs (10) Arkansas
Everything seems to be coming together at the perfect time for John Calipari’s Razorbacks. After battling early-season injuries and starting 0-5 in conference play, Arkansas has hit its stride when it matters most. Fresh off wins over Kansas and longtime rival Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad, the Razorbacks have their sights set on an Elite Eight berth. Arkansas thrives on its defensive presence, ranking among the nation’s top shot-blocking teams. Their length will be crucial in trying to slow down Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin, who has been a dominant force for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, however, are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. They rank No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting 37.1% from three, 54.9% from two, and 76.4% from the free-throw line—numbers that could prove critical in a tight game. On paper, Texas Tech looks like the safer bet, but with a Hall of Fame coach like Calipari leading the way, anything is possible for these Razorbacks.
(2) Michigan State Vs (6) Ole Miss
Tom Izzo has another shot at reaching the Elite Eight, but a surging Ole Miss team stands in his way. Michigan State has had its ups and downs this tournament, but the Spartans have consistently found ways to rally in the second half. Their win over New Mexico proved the value of Izzo’s bench, as key contributors stepped up while freshman standout Jase Richardson struggled, shooting just 1-for-10 from the field. Don’t expect a repeat of that performance—Izzo will make sure his star guard finds his rhythm. Ole Miss, meanwhile, was red-hot in their win over Iowa State, storming to a 20-2 first-half run and never looking back. The Rebels shot an incredible 58% from the field and from beyond the arc, but duplicating that kind of offensive explosion against Michigan State will be a tall task. The Spartans boast the nation’s top-ranked three-point defense, a key factor in slowing down an Ole Miss offense that thrives on perimeter shooting. On the other end, Michigan State has struggled from deep, ranking No. 316 in three-point shooting. The key to their success will be attacking the basket and getting inside. Meanwhile, if Ole Miss wants to reach its first-ever Elite Eight, they’ll need to protect the basketball—the Rebels have the third-lowest turnover percentage in the country, a strength that could be critical against Izzo’s battle-tested squad.
(2) Tennessee Vs (3) Kentucky
The Tennessee Volunteers have built their identity around defense this season, but against Kentucky, that strength hasn’t been enough. The Wildcats swept the season series, securing 78-73 and 75-64 victories over the Vols. With the way Kentucky is playing right now, a third win—and a trip to the Elite Eight—feels entirely within reach. If Tennessee wants to flip the script, they’ll need to contain Wildcats sharpshooter Koby Brea early. Brea played a key role in Kentucky’s win over Illinois, dropping 23 points while shooting an impressive 63% from the field. Meanwhile, Lamont Butler appears to have shaken off a recent shoulder injury, bouncing back from a scoreless first-round performance to contribute 14 points in the last game. Kentucky’s biggest weapon in this matchup is its perimeter shooting. The Wildcats rank 24th nationally in three-point percentage, with 34% of their total points coming from beyond the arc. If they stay hot from deep, they’ll be tough to stop. This one has all the makings of a thriller, but Tennessee’s defense could be the difference. Expect a tight battle, but don’t be surprised if the Vols finally get their revenge and punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.
(1) Auburn Vs (5) Michigan
After cruising through the regular season, the Auburn Tigers have hit a rough patch at the worst possible time. They stumbled into the tournament, losing three of their final four games, but responded with a strong performance against Creighton in the Round of 32. Still, history isn’t exactly on Auburn’s side—Bruce Pearl’s teams have a reputation for faltering under pressure, and if any No. 1 seed is vulnerable in the Sweet 16, it might be the Tigers. Michigan presents a unique challenge with its towering frontcourt. The Wolverines are the only team in the tournament that starts two 7-footers—Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf—and they will be a handful for Auburn’s talented big men. Michigan leans heavily on its size, ranking just 200th in three-point shooting but 15th in two-point percentage. Expect the Wolverines’ guards to feed their twin towers in the paint and let them go to work. However, even with their size advantage, Michigan may not have enough firepower to keep up with Auburn. National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome has been dominant all season, and this feels like another moment for him to shine. Expect Broome to rise to the occasion and lead the Tigers to the next round.
(1) Houston Vs (4) Purdue
Defense has always been the foundation of a Kelvin Sampson-coached team, and this year’s Houston squad is no exception. The Cougars boast the best defense in the country, suffocating opponents with relentless pressure. But what makes this team even more dangerous? They’re also the top three-point shooting team in the tournament, hitting a scorching 39.8% from beyond the arc. Houston has taken down bigger, more talented teams than Purdue all season, and this matchup feels no different. The Boilermakers cruised past High Point and McNeese in the early rounds, but they have yet to face a true test. Against the Cougars’ elite defense, Purdue will be overwhelmed. Expect Houston to impose its will and punch its ticket to the next round with a convincing double-digit win.
Sources:
CBS Sports. (2025). 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Scouting each team in the Sweet 16 as March Madness rolls on. Retrieved from https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2025-ncaa-tournament-bracket-scouting-each-team-in-the-sweet-16-as-march-madness-rolls-on/
KenPom. (2025). KenPom Index. Retrieved from https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE
College Football News. (2025). NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Predictions & Betting Odds – Friday, 2025. Retrieved from https://collegefootballnews.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-sweet-16-predictions-betting-odds-friday-2025
Comments